PROJECT BRIEF

BACKGROUND

Weaponized Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming essential to militaries worldwide, adding a new dimension to warfare and regional conflicts. To better understand the risks involved in developing and using weaponized AI, the 2025 Spring Cohort Paragon team provided the Office of Regional Security and Arms Transfers (RSAT), within the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at the U.S. Department of State (DOS), with a landscape analysis and informed policy recommendations for arms transfers. The team comprehensively analyzed weaponized AI and its implications for national security. This project specifically explored existing uses of weaponized AI worldwide and developed a framework for DOS to assess arms transfers.

AIMS

This project set out to provide a thorough landscape analysis of current uses of weaponized AI and create a framework, i.e. Weaponized AI Transfer Scorecard, to evaluate arms transfers. This resulted in a two-part deliverable that provided an overview of the weaponized AI landscape and a weaponized AI framework.

METHODOLOGY

Research began with a broad literature review, which fellows then narrowed to develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating the transfer of weaponized AI technologies. Each deliverable part required a set of unique analytical approaches that combine to create a complete evaluation system for responsible AI weapons transfer.

DELIVERABLES

The project delivered two distinct yet interrelated reports on weaponized AI arms transfers: (1) a weaponized AI landscape overview to identify several convergent challenges affecting AI weapons development and (2) a weaponized AI transfer scorecard to evaluate potential transfers against seven fundamental principles to help policymakers balance strategic partnerships with national security considerations. 

IMPACT AND FUTURE WORK

The Weaponized AI Transfer Scorecard provides RSAT with a tool to make informed, consistent decisions about AI technology transfers that balance strategic partnerships with security considerations. By systematically evaluating each transfer against established principles, the scorecard helps identify potential risks while facilitating beneficial exchanges with allies. As AI technology evolves, this framework offers a foundation that can adapt to emerging capabilities and challenges. The comprehensive nature of the principles—covering technical, ethical, and strategic dimensions—ensures the scorecard will remain relevant even as the field continues to develop and evolve.